Kind of an interesting scenerio for the Gulf Coastal states in terms of severe weather later today. NAM fcst sounding for KNPA at 18z shows 1100 J/kg of CAPE by lifting a surface parcel, given a steep lapse rate in the lowest 2km layer (with KHBG yielding nearly 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE around the same timeframe) with nearly backed flow at the sfc layer. This maintains favorabley large/curved hodographs across the region and strong vertical shear, supportive of tornadic supercells. Ongoing MCS in southern LA/MS will push east as the night progresses... And by the early afternoon, we could be seeing re-development and the potential for supercells near the warm front along the Gulf Coastal states. Overall, I'd have to expect at least an isolated tornado to come out of this.
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