The GFS continues to bring a strong, kinematically-rich system into the central plains and upper Mississippi valley by WED and THUR of next week, in the midst of impressive boundary layer moisture return into the pre-frontal sector. While the latest GFS run looks less favorable for a "cold core" scenerio in eastern KS on THUR (by bringing the low further north, filling it in quite a bit at the sfc, and backing the mid-level flow). However, I am relatively happy the GFS continually wants to bring a strong system into the picture for next week (for something to chase) -- albeit the inconsistency it (and the rest of the model suite) are having with the placement of this system.
I am very willing to chase this, but I don't like the new run for THUR, with most of the warm sector featuring deep-layered unidirectional flow, with only relatively modest low-level veering wind fields (to yield stronger 0-1km SRH for tornadic potential). At any rate, it could still be quite an event... It just sucks about the flow up againest the warm front, as we could have had a slower-storm-speed version of the 12th, should we get a better wind profile -- as the thermodynamic structure the GFS has been progging is quite simuler to March 12th's system, but with weaker absolute flows aloft to yield slower storm motions further east into the warm sector.
Yeah, I apologize for the rambling about a system +5 days out on the GFS -- but I am quite anxious to chase, and next week holds quite a bit of promise for at least one good day or two.
posted 3:51 PM by Nick Grillo
The GFS continues to bring a strong, kinematically-rich system into the central plains and upper Mississippi valley by WED and THUR of next week, in the midst of impressive boundary layer moisture return into the pre-frontal sector. While the latest GFS run looks less favorable for a "cold core" scenerio in eastern KS on THUR (by bringing the low further north, filling it in quite a bit at the sfc, and backing the mid-level flow). However, I am relatively happy the GFS continually wants to bring a strong system into the picture for next week (for something to chase) -- albeit the inconsistency it (and the rest of the model suite) are having with the placement of this system.
I am very willing to chase this, but I don't like the new run for THUR, with most of the warm sector featuring deep-layered unidirectional flow, with only relatively modest low-level veering wind fields (to yield stronger 0-1km SRH for tornadic potential). At any rate, it could still be quite an event... It just sucks about the flow up againest the warm front, as we could have had a slower-storm-speed version of the 12th, should we get a better wind profile -- as the thermodynamic structure the GFS has been progging is quite simuler to March 12th's system, but with weaker absolute flows aloft to yield slower storm motions further east into the warm sector.
Yeah, I apologize for the rambling about a system +5 days out on the GFS -- but I am quite anxious to chase, and next week holds quite a bit of promise for at least one good day or two.
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