This Week
Not very sure on what to think about the upcoming wave(s) that are forecasted to move into the southern and central Plains this week (TUE and WED) after I've watched this current system achromatize itself. The GFS shows substantial low-level moisture being pulled up along the dryline by TUE -- across eastern KS, OK and TX -- with the 60F surface isodrosotherm impinging a McPherson to Ottawa line. Isallobaric forcing immediately east of the surface low will result in backed to nearly backed boundary layer flow across eastern KS during the afternoon and evening -- enhancing low-level shear -- as the strongest upper-level forcing noses into the moist sector.
Given we get some insolation to contribute to surface-based CAPE -- we could definitely have a nice setup for supercells across eastern KS on TUE -- given strong deep-layer shear across the moist sector, and considerable veering flow within the boundary layer -- which should contribute to large SRH (being favorable for tornadoes). As of now, I am thinking about chasing -- but will the setup actually look like this on TUE? I have more confidence in this system than the last, but it's still a solid 5 days out. We shall see.
posted 11:49 AM by Nick Grillo
Not very sure on what to think about the upcoming wave(s) that are forecasted to move into the southern and central Plains this week (TUE and WED) after I've watched this current system achromatize itself. The GFS shows substantial low-level moisture being pulled up along the dryline by TUE -- across eastern KS, OK and TX -- with the 60F surface isodrosotherm impinging a McPherson to Ottawa line. Isallobaric forcing immediately east of the surface low will result in backed to nearly backed boundary layer flow across eastern KS during the afternoon and evening -- enhancing low-level shear -- as the strongest upper-level forcing noses into the moist sector.
Given we get some insolation to contribute to surface-based CAPE -- we could definitely have a nice setup for supercells across eastern KS on TUE -- given strong deep-layer shear across the moist sector, and considerable veering flow within the boundary layer -- which should contribute to large SRH (being favorable for tornadoes). As of now, I am thinking about chasing -- but will the setup actually look like this on TUE? I have more confidence in this system than the last, but it's still a solid 5 days out. We shall see.
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