Sorry for the lack of updates, but there isn't a whole lot to update on weather wise... Other than I haven't chased since the first week of April due to financial restraints -- given that I have decided to save my money for May and June (a wise decision, I would have to think) and even July chasing. Since then, there have been several nice chase days... Including this past Monday in OK and a few other days, including 4-16 in Illinois and 4-15 in Nebraska (the large "Beatrice" tornado) along with the 4-6 tube near Hanover, KS.
My unofficial "leave date" for the Plains is May 7th... The past GFS runs have shown a relatively active second week of May, with the first significant event looking to be around that timeframe -- with the latest GFS showing a large, negatively-tilted trough slamming into the central plains, with favorable low-level parcel trajectories for nice moisture return. I am hoping for a nice mid-May and into June year, just like 2005, but hopefully a few more outbreak days to please us all! :-)
posted 5:16 PM by Nick Grillo
Sorry for the lack of updates, but there isn't a whole lot to update on weather wise... Other than I haven't chased since the first week of April due to financial restraints -- given that I have decided to save my money for May and June (a wise decision, I would have to think) and even July chasing. Since then, there have been several nice chase days... Including this past Monday in OK and a few other days, including 4-16 in Illinois and 4-15 in Nebraska (the large "Beatrice" tornado) along with the 4-6 tube near Hanover, KS.
My unofficial "leave date" for the Plains is May 7th... The past GFS runs have shown a relatively active second week of May, with the first significant event looking to be around that timeframe -- with the latest GFS showing a large, negatively-tilted trough slamming into the central plains, with favorable low-level parcel trajectories for nice moisture return. I am hoping for a nice mid-May and into June year, just like 2005, but hopefully a few more outbreak days to please us all! :-)
Sunday, April 09, 2006
I haven't been able to update for awhile -- and I don't really have a lot to say about last week's (e.g. 30 March, 1 April) chasing -- other than disapointment and a pure waste of time and money. I saw a nice striated supercell in western OK on 1 April, which showed excellent low-level rotation, but the dry boundary layer (large-very large Td depressions and low BL RH) and associated higher LCLs across the moist sector helped to allow for stronger evaporational cooling in the supercell's downdraft, and the storm slowly transitioned from a strong supercell (with tennis-ball sized hail and rotating wall cloud) to a outflow dominant piece of crap -- with linear upscale growth (and merging with other cells to the south).
The setup a few days ago in eastern KS (6 April) didn't look a whole lot different... However, the deep surface low [986mb] almost lured me out to eastern NE hoping for NNW-moving supercells. But, by the 00z NAM run leading up to the event, and then the morning analysis -- everything looks entirely different. I gave a meteoroligical explanation of the "outbreak failure" on Stormtrack here. In shorter terms, the moist layer across the KS/NE warm sector was already shallow to begin with -- and the very strong insolation and convective mixing process during the afternoon helped to mix out whatever shallow moisture we had -- as indicated by the significant hydrolapse right off the surface on the 18z TOP sounding! In addition, the high LCLs (as a result of the shallow BL moisture) and small 0-1km SRH didn't help any for significant tornado potential. I gave a more in-depth look (including a few ob soundings) on that ST topic.
At any rate, I am not sure on when I'll go back out to the plains. Perhaps, I'll leave next (this) week... I have no idea. I was thinking of partnering up with somebody for a few weeks, to unload some of the expenses -- especially with all these 'early season' setups. The GFS continues a progressive flow with another strong trof lifting out of the western US and into the central/northern plains, with the latest GFS amplifying the mean trof to a negative tilt by late next week -- as the wave(s) ride over rather impressive low-level moisture in place over the central/northern US. I don't see ANY signs of this active pattern stopping, period.
posted 1:35 PM by Nick Grillo
I haven't been able to update for awhile -- and I don't really have a lot to say about last week's (e.g. 30 March, 1 April) chasing -- other than disapointment and a pure waste of time and money. I saw a nice striated supercell in western OK on 1 April, which showed excellent low-level rotation, but the dry boundary layer (large-very large Td depressions and low BL RH) and associated higher LCLs across the moist sector helped to allow for stronger evaporational cooling in the supercell's downdraft, and the storm slowly transitioned from a strong supercell (with tennis-ball sized hail and rotating wall cloud) to a outflow dominant piece of crap -- with linear upscale growth (and merging with other cells to the south).
The setup a few days ago in eastern KS (6 April) didn't look a whole lot different... However, the deep surface low [986mb] almost lured me out to eastern NE hoping for NNW-moving supercells. But, by the 00z NAM run leading up to the event, and then the morning analysis -- everything looks entirely different. I gave a meteoroligical explanation of the "outbreak failure" on Stormtrack here. In shorter terms, the moist layer across the KS/NE warm sector was already shallow to begin with -- and the very strong insolation and convective mixing process during the afternoon helped to mix out whatever shallow moisture we had -- as indicated by the significant hydrolapse right off the surface on the 18z TOP sounding! In addition, the high LCLs (as a result of the shallow BL moisture) and small 0-1km SRH didn't help any for significant tornado potential. I gave a more in-depth look (including a few ob soundings) on that ST topic.
At any rate, I am not sure on when I'll go back out to the plains. Perhaps, I'll leave next (this) week... I have no idea. I was thinking of partnering up with somebody for a few weeks, to unload some of the expenses -- especially with all these 'early season' setups. The GFS continues a progressive flow with another strong trof lifting out of the western US and into the central/northern plains, with the latest GFS amplifying the mean trof to a negative tilt by late next week -- as the wave(s) ride over rather impressive low-level moisture in place over the central/northern US. I don't see ANY signs of this active pattern stopping, period.