Sorry for the POS look of the blog, I don't have PS right now; I'll make a new logo and change the look of this thing in the upcoming weeks. At any rate, GFS/ECMWF show an impressive system for this weekend. GFS, as usual, is slightly faster with the progression of the deep-layer cyclone than the ECMWF, but compared to 6-7 runs ago (which placed the sfc low in eastern KS/western MO at 00z) the two models are becoming more in agreement with eachother with the timing of the main shortwave trough aloft. Additionally, the last 2-3 runs of the GFS have been orienting the trough northwest-southeast (negatively-tilted) and more importantly, as said before, slowed it down some. At 00z, it shows the mid-level perturbation impinging the dryline/warm sector; rapidly breaking the cap, initiating precipitation along and ahead of the dryline from central KS into OK. Personally, I don't see much of a difference between this system and 3/23 (which produced several chaseable tornadic supercells in KS and NE) other than, in terms of kinematics, appears to be more favorable. The surface cyclone is projected to be well further south (988mb in central KS at 00z) than the previous system and isallobaric forcing associated with surface cyclogenesis will back boundary layer flow along the dryline. Of course, this yields very favorable low-level shear; with impressive GFS forecast hodographs along the dryline in southern KS/central OK.

In terms of thermodynamics, the GFS has been progging the 55F isodrosotherm into central KS by 00z, with >60 tds into northern OK afterdark as the LLJ strengthens. Forecast soundings show a pretty reasonable depth -- i.e. 75-100mb along the dryline in southcentral KS into northcentral TX. If we can see >1000j/kg of sbCAPE in the warm sector, than Saturday could be an interesting chase day given the extent of the deep-layer kinematic profiles throughout the warm sector.

posted 4:42 PM by Nick Grillo