Nick Grillo's Blog

2009-03-31T16:42:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the POS look of the blog, I don't have PS right now; I'll make a new logo and change the look of this thing in the upcoming weeks. At any rate, GFS/ECMWF show an impressive system for this weekend. GFS, as usual, is slightly faster with the progression of the deep-layer cyclone than the ECMWF, but compared to 6-7 runs ago (which placed the sfc low in eastern KS/western MO at 00z) the two models are becoming more in agreement with eachother with the timing of the main shortwave trough aloft. Additionally, the last 2-3 runs of the GFS have been orienting the trough northwest-southeast (negatively-tilted) and more importantly, as said before, slowed it down some. At 00z, it shows the mid-level perturbation impinging the dryline/warm sector; rapidly breaking the cap, initiating precipitation along and ahead of the dryline from central KS into OK. Personally, I don't see much of a difference between this system and 3/23 (which produced several chaseable tornadic supercells in KS and NE) other than, in terms of kinematics, appears to be more favorable. The surface cyclone is projected to be well further south (988mb in central KS at 00z) than the previous system and isallobaric forcing associated with surface cyclogenesis will back boundary layer flow along the dryline. Of course, this yields very favorable low-level shear; with impressive GFS forecast hodographs along the dryline in southern KS/central OK.

In terms of thermodynamics, the GFS has been progging the 55F isodrosotherm into central KS by 00z, with >60 tds into northern OK afterdark as the LLJ strengthens. Forecast soundings show a pretty reasonable depth -- i.e. 75-100mb along the dryline in southcentral KS into northcentral TX. If we can see >1000j/kg of sbCAPE in the warm sector, than Saturday could be an interesting chase day given the extent of the deep-layer kinematic profiles throughout the warm sector.

2009-01-15T13:17:00.000-08:00

It's been nearly three years since I've posted here, but I now plan on posting here regularly again since I'll be chasing this spring. I don't have a website up right now, nor am I sure that I'll have one up anytime soon. This blog will be devoted solely to storm chasing and writings pertaining to severe weather meteorology.

2006-04-26T17:16:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the lack of updates, but there isn't a whole lot to update on weather wise... Other than I haven't chased since the first week of April due to financial restraints -- given that I have decided to save my money for May and June (a wise decision, I would have to think) and even July chasing. Since then, there have been several nice chase days... Including this past Monday in OK and a few other days, including 4-16 in Illinois and 4-15 in Nebraska (the large "Beatrice" tornado) along with the 4-6 tube near Hanover, KS.

My unofficial "leave date" for the Plains is May 7th... The past GFS runs have shown a relatively active second week of May, with the first significant event looking to be around that timeframe -- with the latest GFS showing a large, negatively-tilted trough slamming into the central plains, with favorable low-level parcel trajectories for nice moisture return. I am hoping for a nice mid-May and into June year, just like 2005, but hopefully a few more outbreak days to please us all! :-)

2006-04-09T13:35:00.000-07:00

I haven't been able to update for awhile -- and I don't really have a lot to say about last week's (e.g. 30 March, 1 April) chasing -- other than disapointment and a pure waste of time and money. I saw a nice striated supercell in western OK on 1 April, which showed excellent low-level rotation, but the dry boundary layer (large-very large Td depressions and low BL RH) and associated higher LCLs across the moist sector helped to allow for stronger evaporational cooling in the supercell's downdraft, and the storm slowly transitioned from a strong supercell (with tennis-ball sized hail and rotating wall cloud) to a outflow dominant piece of crap -- with linear upscale growth (and merging with other cells to the south).

The setup a few days ago in eastern KS (6 April) didn't look a whole lot different... However, the deep surface low [986mb] almost lured me out to eastern NE hoping for NNW-moving supercells. But, by the 00z NAM run leading up to the event, and then the morning analysis -- everything looks entirely different. I gave a meteoroligical explanation of the "outbreak failure" on Stormtrack here. In shorter terms, the moist layer across the KS/NE warm sector was already shallow to begin with -- and the very strong insolation and convective mixing process during the afternoon helped to mix out whatever shallow moisture we had -- as indicated by the significant hydrolapse right off the surface on the 18z TOP sounding! In addition, the high LCLs (as a result of the shallow BL moisture) and small 0-1km SRH didn't help any for significant tornado potential. I gave a more in-depth look (including a few ob soundings) on that ST topic.

At any rate, I am not sure on when I'll go back out to the plains. Perhaps, I'll leave next (this) week... I have no idea. I was thinking of partnering up with somebody for a few weeks, to unload some of the expenses -- especially with all these 'early season' setups. The GFS continues a progressive flow with another strong trof lifting out of the western US and into the central/northern plains, with the latest GFS amplifying the mean trof to a negative tilt by late next week -- as the wave(s) ride over rather impressive low-level moisture in place over the central/northern US. I don't see ANY signs of this active pattern stopping, period.

2006-03-25T12:51:00.000-08:00

GFS continues to support progressive flow opening up over central US by the upcoming early-mid week, with enough upper-level jet energy/DPVA to induce strong cyclogenesis at the surface on WED and THUR -- with both days looking highly chaseable (and possible even FRI) -- with deep, quality boundary layer moisture return into the warm sector. WED looks sweet, with an incredible shear profile (with strongly backed surface flow, veering to the west-southwest aloft at 300mb) and plentiful low-level moisture (55-60 Tds across TX/OK and even into southern/central KS). Still quite a few uncertainties with the placement of the mean trough, but it is indeed safe to say that we'll have a chase coming up next week, and I'll probably leave DTX on TUE afternoon for KS (or OK).

2006-03-24T15:51:00.000-08:00

The GFS continues to bring a strong, kinematically-rich system into the central plains and upper Mississippi valley by WED and THUR of next week, in the midst of impressive boundary layer moisture return into the pre-frontal sector. While the latest GFS run looks less favorable for a "cold core" scenerio in eastern KS on THUR (by bringing the low further north, filling it in quite a bit at the sfc, and backing the mid-level flow). However, I am relatively happy the GFS continually wants to bring a strong system into the picture for next week (for something to chase) -- albeit the inconsistency it (and the rest of the model suite) are having with the placement of this system.

I am very willing to chase this, but I don't like the new run for THUR, with most of the warm sector featuring deep-layered unidirectional flow, with only relatively modest low-level veering wind fields (to yield stronger 0-1km SRH for tornadic potential). At any rate, it could still be quite an event... It just sucks about the flow up againest the warm front, as we could have had a slower-storm-speed version of the 12th, should we get a better wind profile -- as the thermodynamic structure the GFS has been progging is quite simuler to March 12th's system, but with weaker absolute flows aloft to yield slower storm motions further east into the warm sector.

Yeah, I apologize for the rambling about a system +5 days out on the GFS -- but I am quite anxious to chase, and next week holds quite a bit of promise for at least one good day or two.

2006-03-23T13:39:00.000-08:00

The latest GFS has gone wild both kinematically and thermodynamically by progging 55-60 Tds advecting well into KS (and even into NE) on WED and THUR -- associated with a >30kt SW LLJ (which really cranks up on THUR evening), with cyclogenesis at the sfc in response to the approaching amplifying shortwave aloft at H5, with backed low-level flow well ahead of the cyclone on WED. While I haven't been paying in-depth attention to the models constantly, it has appeared the GFS wanted to bring a system onto the central plains during the last few days of MAR since late last week. Some runs being much weaker, some runs being stronger, with this run being quite wild looking.

I am looking forward to the chase season. But, I also have to conserve money. This system is still 6-7 days out, and has been unconsistent from run to run. I sure wouldn't mind spending the rest of APR, MAY and JUN on the plains, living somewhere.

New Car

2006-03-21T19:43:00.000-08:00

Got my car yesterday afternoon, and was able to get insurance and plates for it earlier this evening. I got to take a couple pics of it yesterday afternoon (had it in my Grandma's backyard for the night, didn't have a place to put it). More pics at: http://www.midwestchase.com/3-20-2006.html

Re All

2006-03-20T13:24:00.000-08:00

First off, apologies for not updating my blog for so long, and as the season progresses -- I will be updating it way more frequently. But, here is a few new tidbits... LOL

I chased two supercells on SUN afternoon and evening... The first produced the freak tornado events, as it progressed east-northeast across northern MO, way north of the surface warm front -- in a zone of low-level WAA/extreme helicities and meager low-level moisture (e.g. 38-44F Tds in the inflow sector). In fact, most of the RUC proximity soundings around the supercell inflow environment didn't show any CAPE until lifting parcels near the 750-800-mb layer, and carried no instability originating from the boundary layer -- which would officially make this supercell elevated. However, by the time I got on it... It was beginning to show linear charactoristics and blowing out cool/dry RFDs -- which was definitely not a good sign. The best part of that storm was the hailstorm which quickly proceeded the forward flank gust front. The biggest stone wasn't much bigger than an inch, with mostly penny-sized stones falling -- but it fell down hard enough to make it a cool scene.

Then, after meandering around northcentral and northeast MO during the mid-afternoon, I finally intercepted which to be one of the longest-lived supercells documented in history -- just southwest of Springfield, IL. After getting pounded with hail almost golfball-sized, I ran into rampaging inflow. The thing had the strongest RFDs that I have ever seen (some of the gusts just south of the main tornado surpassed 100mph, nearly knocking over my car). Then, the gigantic tornado emerged... Not much more than a quarter mile up the highway -- a gigantic, stumpy tube -- sucking everything into it (later confirmed to be F2 as it entered SPI). This supercell was the most intense storm that I have witnessed, hands down... But it was also one of the least photogenic I have ever captured -- with VERY few shots coming out of it ( http://www.midwestchase.com/march12th-springfield-tornado.wmv -- only a second ) as powerflashes illuminated the tornado.

2006 will be my fourth year storm chasing -- and this is also the first year that I got a tornado on my first chase of the year. My first chase in 2003 was a multicellular cluster in southeast MI. My first chase in 2004 involved a linear segment which developed along an outflow bndry from intervening convection (dropping 1" inch hailstones on me). The first chase of 2005 was a marginal supercell in southeast AR and northwest MS. Now, the first chase of 2006 featured a gigantic tornado in early MAR in Illinois! So, I am looking forward to what 2006 will bring me.... I took a chase "vacation" for just under six weeks last year... This year, I would like to chase slightly longer. I hope to be out on the plains throughout May and June -- and I sure wouldn't mind chasing a few JUL NE/SD setups -- and I hope to be on at least a few of the "surprise" supercells which develop on old outflow boundaries and drop south in northcentral NE :-)

In other news somewhat relating to my chasing... I will be picking up my long-awaited car within the next hour. I'm just about out the door. I got the rest of the money ($2,000) to purchase the Mustang. I'll post pics of it later. I'll also be updating my website in a bit.

This Week

2006-03-03T11:49:00.000-08:00

Not very sure on what to think about the upcoming wave(s) that are forecasted to move into the southern and central Plains this week (TUE and WED) after I've watched this current system achromatize itself. The GFS shows substantial low-level moisture being pulled up along the dryline by TUE -- across eastern KS, OK and TX -- with the 60F surface isodrosotherm impinging a McPherson to Ottawa line. Isallobaric forcing immediately east of the surface low will result in backed to nearly backed boundary layer flow across eastern KS during the afternoon and evening -- enhancing low-level shear -- as the strongest upper-level forcing noses into the moist sector.

Given we get some insolation to contribute to surface-based CAPE -- we could definitely have a nice setup for supercells across eastern KS on TUE -- given strong deep-layer shear across the moist sector, and considerable veering flow within the boundary layer -- which should contribute to large SRH (being favorable for tornadoes). As of now, I am thinking about chasing -- but will the setup actually look like this on TUE? I have more confidence in this system than the last, but it's still a solid 5 days out. We shall see.

Weekend Moist Sector

2006-02-28T15:44:00.000-08:00

As for Saturday -- it has gone from a strong 995mb surface low in southwest KS to a 1012mb low in the Dakotas in a meer few runs. The ongoing precip in the moist sector progged by the model (associated with the low-level WAA regime) could very well destroy the chances for any insolation to develop -- but if we could get insolation to augment surface-based CAPE -- in addition to the plentiful deep layer wind shear, we could be seeing an few isolated supercells. In addition, the favorable boundary layer veering is contributing to substantial SRH -- which could support an isolated tornado. As for me chasing this, no chance -- LOL

I am in the process of finally buying a car... I just put a down payment on the car this morning. It's a 2002, blue Mustang (V6). So, I don't have the money -- at the moment -- to drive >1,000 miles one-way to risk seeing a rainshower, LOL. The car is georgous, and I will hopefully have it within the next week (it's mine, I put a 1K down payment this morning). As for the Evansville (5/6 November 2005) case study -- I have been lazy as hell to finish it, and I will hopefully have the paper done within the month -- LOL (been super busy).

Analysis of the 6 November 2005 KEVV tornado

2006-02-11T04:39:00.000-08:00

I am coming close to concluding my case study on the 11-6-2005 EVV event... A lot of interesting features surrounding the event. Including a mesolow analyzed in western Kentucky prior to the destructive tornadoes (the "EVV" supercell and the Crittenden Co. supercell just to it's south), which were both on the ground at the same time (and simuler in intensity). Looking over SPC mesoanalysis graphics from the timeframe, most svr params were maxed around the area immediately near the mesolow feature (VGP, EHI, STP, SCP). Additionally, modifying the 00Z ILX sounding to KEVV's sfc conditions at 0700 UTC yielded 2300 J/kg of CAPE by lifting a surface-based parcel (and slightly less by using a mean mixing layer parcel from the lowest 100mb AGL). The environment surrounding the destructive tornadic supercells was charactorized by both large CAPE and very large SRH. It was a very interesting and unique event, and will hopefully have the study completed by mid-week. I'll have it available on my site in PDF format.

In other words, I think I found my new ride... After thinking, I have decided to get a used car. I found a sweet 2002 Mustang with 42,000 miles for $10,900 online (here in Metro Detroit). I want a car that will last me for a good 2-4 years (and this car should definitely last me a few). It's a sweet ride and quite affordable for me.

Today

2006-02-02T02:39:00.000-08:00

Kind of an interesting scenerio for the Gulf Coastal states in terms of severe weather later today. NAM fcst sounding for KNPA at 18z shows 1100 J/kg of CAPE by lifting a surface parcel, given a steep lapse rate in the lowest 2km layer (with KHBG yielding nearly 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE around the same timeframe) with nearly backed flow at the sfc layer. This maintains favorabley large/curved hodographs across the region and strong vertical shear, supportive of tornadic supercells. Ongoing MCS in southern LA/MS will push east as the night progresses... And by the early afternoon, we could be seeing re-development and the potential for supercells near the warm front along the Gulf Coastal states. Overall, I'd have to expect at least an isolated tornado to come out of this.

southern plains relief

2006-01-23T01:18:00.000-08:00

There might be a chance for relief later this week... The latest GFS brings in a closed low into the southern plains by late this week - with modestly favorable wind trajectories advecting in ample moisture to work with across OK/TX (with the 55F sfc isodrosotherm nosing into central OK by late FRI) and strong diffluent flow aloft and even some weak sfc convergance providing broad scale ascent to the warm sector. I'm hoping this trend will continue to help this drought.

2006-01-18T21:27:00.000-08:00

As far as weather patterns, the next system on Day 3-4 looks like crap... NAM shows even weaker instability developing, with the more robust boundary layer moisture pushed much further south then the previous runs. Not much else in the 180hr GFS attm. Hoping the active fall + already active winter is a clue that the 2006 season will be a good one. The gulf has refused to get washed out, despite numerous cold fronts plowing through in the recent weeks.

Long-Range Pattern...

2006-01-06T15:35:00.000-08:00

Long-range GFS pattern suggests a system tries to evolve in the Mississippi valley by late next week. The >50kt SW LLJ yields at least moderate moisture return all the way into the lower OH valley by FRI (with the 12z run showing the 50F isodrosotherm pushing into northern IL). Well above temperature are expected ahead of the system, with 50-60F sfc temperatures moving all the way into the Great Lakes area by late next week. Way too far out to be taken seriously, but the past few runs continue in wanting to develop something during this timeframe (previous run showed a slightly more amplified shortwave ejecting out into the central plains and moving east during the same timeframe). I just think with such an active fall (and already a decent-sized severe weather event just a few days ago) we could see a pretty decent spring... This is, of couse, just a wild guess... But I'm hoping for some MAR chases.

2006

2006-01-05T16:42:00.000-08:00

Starting a blog again LOL... In the most "major" news... Continue to finish up my last year of high school and getting my "official" driver's license in less than 2 monthes. A new year has dawned and soon I'll be back out on the road again chasing storms, for my fourth season. I'm still unsure of my plans on what to do after I graduate, and I am glad to have it that way. I want to take some time off, move down south for at least 2006 and some of 2007, get a job and an apartment, meet new friends and pursue what I love doing -- chasing severe storms. Will I smash my Mustang GT in 2006? Stay tuned to find out! More updates later.

Hello

2005-11-22T12:47:00.000-08:00

This is just a weekly test of the emergency alert system.